Trump kicks off his re-election bid in Florida next week, but the insurgent is now the incumbent. Will his time as president change his strategy?
When Donald Trump launches his presidential re-election campaign next week, he will do it at a rally in the Amway Center home to sports teams Orlando Magic, Orlando Solar Bears and Orlando Predators in a part of Florida better known for Cape Canaveral and Walt Disney World.
He was dismissed. He was scorned. He was laughed at. But he had the last laugh. To the astonishment and consternation of the establishment, Trump went on to offer the ultimate proof that in America, anyone can be president. He beat 16 fellow Republicans, then Democrat Hillary Clinton, to become the first person to reach the Oval Office with no political or military experience.
Now he has to hope that lightning can strike twice. On Tuesday 18 June, Trump, accompanied by the first lady, Melania Trump, the vice-president, Mike Pence and the second lady, Karen Pence, will hold a Make America Great Again rally in Orlando, Florida, a state that is home to his Mar-a-Lago resort and is usually a pivotal battleground in presidential elections.
This time the insurgent is the incumbent, lacking outsider status or shock value, but boasting all the advantages of incumbency, a vast war chest and buy-in from Republican party mandarins. Will he run a more conventional campaign this time? Will he heed the advice of his well-paid advisers? Has the presidency changed him at all?
Hell no! said Michael Steele, former chair of the Republican National Committee (RNC). I remember doing an interview the week of the inaugural and I said my assessment going into this new administration hinges on the answer to a question: will Donald Trump be changed by the presidency or will he change the presidency itself? And the answer is very clear at this point. He has fundamentally changed the presidency of the United States and it will take a man or woman of incredible character to restore it.
Trumps 2020 strategy
Back in 2016, which here in Washington feels like millennia ago, Trump ran as a celebrity businessman who glorified in trashing norms and expertise, hurling vulgar insults and sticking two fingers up to the political elite. In 2020, he will run as a celebrity businessman who glorifies in trashing norms and expertise, hurling vulgar insults and flipping off the political elite.
Once a blur on the horizon, the outlines of his next campaign are coming into sharp focus. He has laid out his strategy for re-election in his tweets, his interviews, his speeches and his presidency thus far. It will probably be a rerun of 2016, throwing red meat to red states in a series of high-octane rallies and Fox News interviews that lean in to Americas toxic tribalism.
Most conventionally, Trump and his allies will tout the economy. Trump seldom misses an opportunity to talk about stock market highs, growth topping 3% or unemployment hitting the lowest rate in half a century. The White House relishes recycling old comments from Democrat Nancy Pelosi likening Trumps tax cuts to Armageddon or economist Paul Krugmans prophecy of global recession, with no end in sight.
Ronna McDaniel, current chair of the RNC, told Fox News in May: The case is gonna be the economy, economy, economy, period.